|
Ask Nick...
| From January 2010 Issue |
| Q: |
What is the kindest, most compassionate way to say to a prospect—when they
complain of decades of investment losses, poor performance, etc.—that the
problem is not with the market, but with their behavior? |
| A: |
I don’t believe there is such a statement. I’d recommend the Socratic method:
don’t make statements; ask questions. "Please help me understand how such a
thing is possible. Three decades ago, the Dow was under 900. Two decades ago, it
was under 2800. Today, it’s over 10,000. So you can’t be generalizing about the
market; you have to be saying something about your own experience, which is
apparently much worse than the market. Is that right? Do you want to talk about
how that happened? Would you like me to describe to you how my way of advising
people can prevent it from happening?" |
| Q: |
A disturbing number of clients are mouthing the latest iteration of the "buy
and hold doesn’t work anymore" argument. This version holds that buy and hold
has failed because the stock market has become so dominated by hedge funds,
institutions and programmed trading strategies. My answer seems to me very lame.
Can you please arm me? |
| A: |
My pleasure. (1) The phenomena to which you refer are noise. The idea that
the long-term pricing mechanism of the market could be seriously and lastingly
skewed—that the market could become and remain mispriced—because of trading
strategies is illogical. Another trading strategy, seeing the mispricing, would
instantly come in on the other side of the trade, and wipe out the arbitrage.
Trading strategies not only don’t misprice markets, they cancel each other out.
The more market participants—regardless of their strategies—the more efficient
markets must become over time. (2) There are only four determinants of long-term
equity values. They are: earnings, cash flows, dividends, and the future
expectations thereof. Everything else is noise. |
| From July 2009 Issue |
| Q: |
As I get further into distribution planning with my clients that are reaching
the next phase in their life, is there a particular strategy you utilize? There
seem to be very many ideas and strategies surrounding this subject so I was
curious as to how you plan for this in particular when we go through markets are
experiencing now. |
| A: |
As a program of general guidelines:
(1) Put two years’ living expenses in a money market fund.
(2) Put the rest in a diversified portfolio of managed and/or pooled
equities.
(3) Begin withdrawing from the equities at 4.5%. Escalate this at 3% per
year.
(4) At some pre-determined point—say, when the account is down 20%
through a combination of market decline and withdrawals—stop the withdrawal from
equities and switch to the money market fund for a year.
(5) After a year, re-assess your position in consultation with your client,
with the option to continue drawing from the money market fund for a second
year.
(6) Treat these as guidelines, not rules. Their main attraction is that you
are always acting on a plan rather than reacting to the markets. |
| From August 2009 Issue |
Q: |
I’ve gotten an increasing number of retired clients who have been approached
by other advisors trying to sell them annuities with guaranteed income features.
In the current market environment they’re getting a receptive audience. One of
my clients recently transferred $100,000 into such a product with a competing
advisor even though she has virtually no shot of running out of money and had
never voiced any serious concerns about risk in her portfolio. In the past I’ve
only recommended them to clients who were either in danger of outliving their
nest egg or would only wade into equities with a safety net. Of course the
insurance wholesalers and staff people are preaching that we want to be the ones
to tell our clients about annuities before the competition does. What’s your
take? Should we be playing defense by speaking with all our retired clients
about them? Are you from the Moshe Milevsky school that says most retirees could
use one? As always I look forward to your valued opinion. |
| A: |
This question, which appears to be about annuities, isn’t at all. It’s about
something much deeper, which is the issue of your client communication and
control. If you have someone moving a six-figure amount to another advisor,
without seeking your counsel, that person was never a client, and you
inexplicably affected not to notice. I’m not prepared to say she didn’t do
anything wrong; what I say is that you enabled her to do what she did by never
completing the relationship—by allowing it to remain in some grey twilight where
the important things were left unsaid, or where she felt she could ignore
them...and you. This is 100% your fault.
But what’s even scarier is that you think this may be a generalized problem,
and are seriously considering "playing defense" not by acting to deepen and
strengthen your clients’ reliance on your counsel, but by showing them a product
you do not believe is right for them, as some sort of misguided competitive
pre-emption. (The only ray of light in all this—and a very faint ray it is—is
that you are exactly right about the applicability of annuities with "living
benefits." Their proper application is to situations where the client is at
significant risk of running out of money and/or is so fundamentally petrified of
equity volatility that he requires the psychological support of the guarantees.)
In other words, your proposed solution addresses the symptom and not the
disease.
Were I you, I wouldn’t embark on a campaign of running around showing people
annuities, or even telling people why you don’t think they need them (which will
only cause them to nod sagely, pat you on the head, and then start finding out
all about annuities the minute the door closes behind you). I’d start running
around, all right. But I’d be running around having deep philosophical
conversations with my clients. "Are you happy with what we’re doing? Do you
continue to understand what we’re doing, and why? Are there questions or
concerns you have—about anything at all—that for whatever reason you’ve been
reluctant to raise with me? Is there anything you need, or just want, me to
explain again? Do you know in your bones that what I have you doing is out of
deep and abiding concern for your long-term well-being—for the maintenance of
your dignity and independence in retirement?"
The risk to your practice—and I perceive it to be grave—is not the onset of
"competitive" products or advisors. (I do not know anyone at the top of this
profession who thinks for a moment that he or she has any competition for the
minds and hearts of their clients.) It is The Great Unsaid—the things your
clients are feeling that they are not comfortable telling you. Again, the bad
news is that this is all your fault, but the great news is that you can fix
it. |
|